A distant-early-warning model of inflation based on M1 disequilibria / by Jamie Armour ... [et al.]. : FB3-2/96-5E-PDF
A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focuses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.--Abstract
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| Department/Agency | Bank of Canada. |
|---|---|
| Title | A distant-early-warning model of inflation based on M1 disequilibria / by Jamie Armour ... [et al.]. |
| Series title | Bank of Canada working paper1701-939796-5 |
| Publication type | Series - View Master Record |
| Language | [English] |
| Format | Electronic |
| Electronic document | |
| Other formats | Paper-[English] |
| Note(s) | "A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focuses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices."--Abstract. The ISBN (0-662-24416-8) and ISSN (1192-5434) for the print edition have been incorrectly copied in this electronic publication. Résumés en français. |
| Publishing information | Ottawa - Ontario : Bank of Canada April 1996. |
| Description | 26p.graphs, references, table |
| ISSN | 1701-9397 |
| Catalogue number |
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| Subject terms | Inflation |