Changing fortunes : long-termism - G-zero, artificial intelligence and debt / by Stephen S. Poloz. : FB3-6/2019-12E-PDF

"This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers: 1. the transition in geopolitics away from a global order based on international co-operation, or “deglobalization”; 2. the spread of new technology, particularly artificial intelligence, through the “fourth industrial revolution”; and 3. the steady buildup of debt—public and private—in most countries. Deglobalization leads to reduced investment and the deconstruction of global value chains, which will reduce global potential economic growth and living standards. The fourth industrial revolution will foster a period of stronger productivity growth and low inflation, accompanied by significant labour market disruptions. High and growing debt levels raise a range of risks associated with financial vulnerabilities. As well, the coincident rise in populism with doubts about the value of central bank independence risks an alignment of incentives between governments and highly indebted households, favouring a return to inflationary policies in the future. The paper concludes with a list of inferences and long-term policy implications"--Abstract.

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Renseignements sur la publication
Ministère/Organisme Bank of Canada.
Titre Changing fortunes : long-termism - G-zero, artificial intelligence and debt / by Stephen S. Poloz.
Titre de la série Bank of Canada staff discussion paper, 1914-0568 ; 2019-12
Type de publication Série - Voir l'enregistrement principal
Langue [Anglais]
Format Électronique
Document électronique
Note(s) "December 2019."
Includes bibliographical references (page 22).
Includes abstract in French.
Information sur la publication Ottawa : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2019.
©2019
Auteur / Contributeur Poloz, Stephen S., author.
Description 1 online resource (v, 22 pages) : colour charts.
Numéro de catalogue
  • FB3-6/2019-12E-PDF
Descripteurs Monetary policy.
Debt.
Technological innovations.
Geopolitics.
Politique monétaire.
Dettes.
Innovations.
Géopolitique.
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