Current status of modelling trajectories of lost shipping containers in the oceans / Brandon J. McNabb, Hauke C. Blanken, Leif-Matthias Herborg, Kayleigh Gillespie, Cathryn Clarke Murray, Michelle Bigg,...: Fs97-18/408E-PDF

"Every year, shipping containers lost overboard at sea present ecological, pollution and collision risks to the oceans and mariners. This report addresses the current capabilities for trajectory modelling of these lost containers, with relevant methodologies synthesized from related fields, where applicable, to bridge key gaps. Topics discussed in this review include the key physical forcings and container properties that influence their trajectories at sea; the sources and limitations of various data and model outputs available to force trajectory models; various approaches applicable to modelling surface drift of containers, such as the leeway method, stochastic ensemble techniques, multi-model ensembles, fuzzy numbers, machine learning, and backtracking; and the factors, forces and approaches relevant to developing a novel sinking trajectory model for shipping containers. Potential approaches to addressing the uncertainties associated with trajectory model frameworks and forcing data resolutions are also discussed"--Abstract, page vi.

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