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Potential output in Canada : 2026 assessment / Alex Chernoff, Chris Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Gabriella Ruggero, Olena Senyuta, Karanbir Sohal, Walter Steingress, Temel Taskin.FB3-8/2026-19E-PDF

"Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027-29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour productivity (TLP). Gradual adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to lift TLP growth over the projection horizon. Relative to Scenario 1 in the April 2025 assessment, growth is revised up in 2025 and revised down over 2026-29"--Abstract, page ii.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.964100&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada, issuing body.
TitlePotential output in Canada : 2026 assessment / Alex Chernoff, Chris Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Gabriella Ruggero, Olena Senyuta, Karanbir Sohal, Walter Steingress, Temel Taskin.
Series title
  • Staff analytical paper = Document analytique du personnel, 3110-9195 ; 2026-19
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
Other language editions[French]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • Issued also in French under title: La production potentielle au Canada : évaluation de 2026.
  • "Last updated: May 25, 2026."
  • Includes bibliographical references (pages 18-19).
  • Includes abstracts in English and French.
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2026.
  • ©2026
Author / Contributor
  • Chernoff, Alexander W., author.
Description1 online resource (ii, 19 pages) : colour illustrations.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-8/2026-19E-PDF
Subject terms
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