00000cam 2200000zi 4500 9.964118 CaOODSP 20260710141651 m o d f cr |n||||||||| 260710e20260611oncd ob f|0| 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP n-cn--- FB3-8/2026-27E-PDF Booth, Edward, author. Monetary policy in a volatile world : ToTEM simulations / Edward Booth, Edouard Djeutem, Olekiy Kryvtsov, Fanny McKellips, Yang Zhang. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, June 11, 2026. ©2026 1 online resource (i, 16 pages) : charts. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff analytical paper = Document analytique du personnel, 3110-9195 ; 2026-27 Cover title. Includes bibliographical references. "Relative to the pre-pandemic period, supply shocks in the Bank of Canada’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) have been moderately larger since 2022, and markedly larger if 2020–21 pandemic is included. ToTEM simulations show that moderately larger supply shocks increase inflation volatility without materially worsening the medium-term inflation outlook or significantly increasing recession risks. When supply shocks are especially large, however, episodes of core inflation outside of the 1–3% control range become both more frequent and more persistent, and recession risks rise sharply. In these environments, monetary policy faces more challenging trade-offs as stabilizing inflation increasingly entails costs to real activity, and even more aggressive policy rules cannot replicate inflation outcomes in more stable periods"--Abstract, page i. Monetary policy Canada. Supply and demand. Politique monétaire Canada. Offre et demande. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff analytical paper (Bank of Canada) 3110-9195 ; 2026-27. (CaOODSP)9.958938 PDF 793 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2026/banque-bank-canada/FB3-8-2026-27-eng.pdf