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008	260710e20260611oncd    ob   f|0| 0 eng d
040	|aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
043	|an-cn---
086	1 |aFB3-8/2026-27E-PDF
100	1 |aBooth, Edward, |eauthor.
245	10|aMonetary policy in a volatile world : |bToTEM simulations / |cEdward Booth, Edouard Djeutem, Olekiy Kryvtsov, Fanny McKellips, Yang Zhang.
264	1|a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |cJune 11, 2026.
264	4|c©2026
300	|a1 online resource (i, 16 pages) : |bcharts.
336	|atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337	|acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338	|aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
490	1 |aStaff analytical paper = |aDocument analytique du personnel, |x3110-9195 ; |v2026-27
500	|aCover title.
504	|aIncludes bibliographical references.
520	|a"Relative to the pre-pandemic period, supply shocks in the Bank of Canada’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) have been moderately larger since 2022, and markedly larger if 2020–21 pandemic is included. ToTEM simulations show that moderately larger supply shocks increase inflation volatility without materially worsening the medium-term inflation outlook or significantly increasing recession risks. When supply shocks are especially large, however, episodes of core inflation outside of the 1–3% control range become both more frequent and more persistent, and recession risks rise sharply. In these environments, monetary policy faces more challenging trade-offs as stabilizing inflation increasingly entails costs to real activity, and even more aggressive policy rules cannot replicate inflation outcomes in more stable periods"--Abstract, page i.
650	0|aMonetary policy|zCanada.
650	0|aSupply and demand.
650	6|aPolitique monétaire|zCanada.
650	6|aOffre et demande.
710	2 |aBank of Canada, |eissuing body.
830	#0|aStaff analytical paper (Bank of Canada)|x3110-9195 ; |v2026-27.|w(CaOODSP)9.958938
856	40|qPDF|s793 KB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2026/banque-bank-canada/FB3-8-2026-27-eng.pdf