00000cam 2200000zi 4500 9.966118 CaOODSP 20260922152235 m o d f cr |n||||||||| 260922t20262026oncdb ob f|0| 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP n-cn--- FB3-5/2026-30E-PDF Papadopoulos, Georgios, author. Climate stress test of the global supply chain network : the case of river floods / Georgios Papadopoulos, Javier Ojea-Ferreiro, Roberto Panzica. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2026. ©2026 1 online resource (39 pages) : charts, maps. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2026-30 "Last updated: September 3, 2026." ISSN assigned to different series. Includes bibliographical references. "This study investigates how extreme flood events can indirectly impact the global supply chain through production disruptions. Using a data-driven, agent-based network model that combines company-level data with flood hazard maps, the research simulates the transmission and amplification of shocks. The findings emphasize that the size of inventories is crucial; a lean-inventory system leads to faster shock propagation, higher losses, and fewer recoveries compared to an abundant-inventory system. Additionally, the study identifies that the number and criticality of flooded companies’ trade links, along with the magnitude of the flood, correlate with the speed and severity of contagion. Interestingly, a key metric - the average criticality of affected firms’ outgoing links - consistently peaks before the shock’s propagation enters a fast-paced contagion regime. This could serve as an early warning indicator, giving businesses and policymakers precious time to react. By identifying these critical vulnerabilities, this research provides a framework for enhancing the resilience of global supply chains in the face of increasing climate-related and other risks"--Abstract, page 1. Floods Economic aspects. Supply chain management. Climatic changes Economic aspects. Inondations Aspect économique. Logistique (Organisation) Climat Changements Aspect économique. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 2026-30. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 9.53 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2026/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2026-30-eng.pdf