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A new approach to estimating portfolio-balance models of the yield curve / Antonio Diez de los Rios.: FB3-5/2026-33E-PDF

"We show that the parameters of a broad class of portfolio-balance models can be recovered from estimates of Gaussian dynamic term structure models (GDTSMs) using a two-step estimator that bypasses the fixed-point problem that characterizes portfolio-balance models. Specifically, we develop a novel canonical representation of bond supply in terms of factor-mimicking portfolios, whose returns replicate the structural shocks to the pricing factors. We identify these structural shocks by assuming that each shock corresponds to a distinct, mutually exclusive dimension of bond-supply variation. Using U.S. Treasury yields and macroeconomic data, we show the recovered shocks admit interpretations as hedging-risk-premium, risk-bearing-capacity, and monetary policy shocks"--Abstract.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.966174&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada, issuing body.
TitleA new approach to estimating portfolio-balance models of the yield curve / Antonio Diez de los Rios.
Series title
  • Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2026-33
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • ISSN assigned to different series.
  • Includes bibliographical references.
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, September 18, 2026.
  • ©2026
Author / Contributor
  • Diez de los Rios, Antonio, author.
Description1 online resource (106 pages) : charts.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-5/2026-33E-PDF
Subject terms
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