00000cam 2200000zi 4500 9.966913 CaOODSP 20261019132005 m o d f cr |n||||||||| 261019e20261016oncd ob f|0| 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP n-cn--- FB3-8/2026-52E-PDF Surprenant, Stéphane, author. Demand roars, supply whispers : monetary policy and housing in Canada / Stéphane Surprenant. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, October 16, 2026. ©2026 1 online resource (iii, 19 pages) : charts. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff analytical paper = Document analytique du personnel, 3110-9195 ; 2026-52 Cover title. Includes bibliographical references. "We examine the effects of monetary policy shocks on the Canadian housing market. Using high-frequency surprises around fixed announcement dates as an instrument in a Bayesian VAR, we estimate the responses of house prices, housing starts, building permits, resales, inventories, and mortgage origination to a contractionary monetary policy shock. An increase in the policy rate leads to a substantial and persistent decline in average house prices. Housing starts and building permits fall, but their implied effects on the future housing stock are both slow and modest. Interpreted through the lens of market equilibrium, these results are most consistent with a stronger response of housing demand than housing supply. Mortgage origination provides additional evidence in support of this interpretation"--Abstract, page iii. Monetary policy Canada. Housing policy Canada. Housing Prices Canada. Politique monétaire Canada. Logement Politique gouvernementale Canada. Logement Prix Canada. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff analytical paper (Bank of Canada) 3110-9195 ; 2026-52. (CaOODSP)9.958938 PDF 1.45 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2026/banque-bank-canada/FB3-8-2026-52-eng.pdf