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Stress in the press or stress in the market : a new measure of perceived financial stress / Brett Barnes, Thibaut Duprey, Fred Liu.: FB3-8/2026-50E-PDF

"We develop a news-based measure of perceived financial stress for Canada using more than 900,000 business and economic news articles from 1977 to 2026. Using a data-driven keyword discovery algorithm, we construct an interpretable News-based Stress Index (NSI) that tracks major stress episodes and captures periods when concerns about financial risks intensify despite limited market disruption. Using linear and quantile-augmented VARs, we show that news shocks orthogonal to financial shocks primarily reduce unsecured consumer credit by shifting its entire distribution, whereas market-based financial shocks primarily worsen downside risks to both credit and real activity. This highlights perceived financial stress as a distinct transmission channel operating through household precautionary behavior"--Abstract.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.966919&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada, issuing body.
TitleStress in the press or stress in the market : a new measure of perceived financial stress / Brett Barnes, Thibaut Duprey, Fred Liu.
Series title
  • Staff analytical paper = Document analytique du personnel, 3110-9195 ; 2026-50
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • "Last updated: October 16, 2026."
  • Includes bibliographical references (pages 34-36).
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2026.
  • ©2026
Author / Contributor
  • Barnes, Brett, author.
Description1 online resource (58 pages) : colour illustrations.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-8/2026-50E-PDF
Subject terms
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