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Demand roars, supply whispers : monetary policy and housing in Canada / Stéphane Surprenant.: FB3-8/2026-52E-PDF

"We examine the effects of monetary policy shocks on the Canadian housing market. Using high-frequency surprises around fixed announcement dates as an instrument in a Bayesian VAR, we estimate the responses of house prices, housing starts, building permits, resales, inventories, and mortgage origination to a contractionary monetary policy shock. An increase in the policy rate leads to a substantial and persistent decline in average house prices. Housing starts and building permits fall, but their implied effects on the future housing stock are both slow and modest. Interpreted through the lens of market equilibrium, these results are most consistent with a stronger response of housing demand than housing supply. Mortgage origination provides additional evidence in support of this interpretation"--Abstract, page iii.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.966913&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada, issuing body.
TitleDemand roars, supply whispers : monetary policy and housing in Canada / Stéphane Surprenant.
Series title
  • Staff analytical paper = Document analytique du personnel, 3110-9195 ; 2026-52
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • Cover title.
  • Includes bibliographical references.
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, October 16, 2026.
  • ©2026
Author / Contributor
  • Surprenant, Stéphane, author.
Description1 online resource (iii, 19 pages) : charts.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-8/2026-52E-PDF
Subject terms
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